Up and Coming Weekly is a weekly publication in Fayetteville, NC and Fort Bragg, NC area offering local news, views, arts, entertainment and community event and business information.
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14 SEPTEMBER 23-29, 2015 WWW.UPANDCOMINGWEEKLY.COM I hate being wrong. I guess most people hate it too, but the worst kind of "being wrong" is when you have no idea how or why you ended up that way. I felt that way in 2013 after the municipal elections when Val Applewhite lost to Nat Robertson by 270 votes in the Fayetteville Mayor's race. I predicted almost the exact opposite — that it would be Val Applewhite winning by a couple hundred votes. I have won and lost my fair share of campaigns, learning along the way that peaking at the right time is crucial, and Val Applewhite was peaking at the right time. She had a solid ground game, positive press and enough money to stay competitive. What she didn't have, and at the time I thought she did have, was support on the campus of Fayetteville State University. Numbers Never Lie In preparation for the 2015 municipal elections, I have been reviewing voter turnout statistics from the 2011 and 2013 Fayetteville Municipal Elections. While analyzing City Council District 2, the seat being vacated by Kady Ann Davy, I noticed a large inconsistency in voter turnout between 2011 and 2013 in District 2's portion of Cross Creek 13 (Voting Precinct). In 2011, voter turnout for District 2's portion of Cross Creek 13 was a whopping 421 votes. In 2013, it only managed to turnout 66 votes. That's a 375 vote difference. Even more interesting, this is the only precinct or precinct portion in all of Fayetteville to have a vote drop from 2011 to 2013. It was to my surprise and a bit of shock to learn the location of this anomaly, Fayetteville State University. Why did Fayetteville State University Students not vote in 2013? Fayetteville State University students voted heavily in 2011 and stayed home in 2013, but why? Former FSU student and current District 2 Fayetteville City Council member Kady Ann Davy is most likely the reason. In 2011, Kady Ann Davy had a contested race for Fayetteville City Council with Arthur Duke. I remember knocking on doors for her. She had an organized and aggressive campaign strategy that paid off with her receiving 80 percent of the vote, and I also believe drove up voter turnout at FSU. In 2013, she ran unopposed. With no aggressive campaign to encourage turnout, voter turnout at FSU dropped dramatically. It's also clear that neither Val Applewhite nor Nat Robertson chose to 'GetOut the Vote' at FSU. If voter turnout at FSU was at 2011 levels in 2013 and considering the votes from FSU heavily favored Val Applewhite, there's a good chance we'd have a different Mayor of Fayetteville. My prediction would also be right. What about 2015? We have a rematch. Val Applewhite is looking to unseat Mayor Nat Robertson, but the political landscape has changed quite a bit. Nat Robertson is now an incumbent with all the advantages afforded to that position. Our crime rate has also gone down, statistically anyway. There is also a third mayoral candidate, Edward Donavan, who is not actively campaigning or fundraising but has forced the other candidates to prepare for an Oct. 6 primary election. In District 2, Kady Ann Davy isn't running unopposed but isn't running at all, and we have three new candidates in the mix: Kirk deViere, Len Brown and Gabrielle Henry Galloway. Kirk deViere serves on the FSU Board of Trustees, Len Brown lives close to campus, but Gabrielle Henry Galloway possesses the most potential to 'Get Out the Vote' at Fayetteville State University. She's a current FSU student, former Democracy NC intern, and president of the FSU NAACP chapter. If she is able to survive the primary, she might be able to leverage her FSU networks in ways Kady Ann Davy did in 2011, and potentially alter the political landscape for all mayoral candidates. I don't have a prediction for the Fayetteville Mayor's race this year, but I will predict that voter turnout from Fayetteville State University will undoubtedly impact our municipal elections in 2015. \ In the Fayetteville Mayoral Elections, Down Ballot Races Matter by ANDREW PORTER Special thanks to Camping World and all of the supporting businesses, participating restaurants and non-profit partners. Fayetteville Urban Ministry needs your support as we continue to "show God's compassion for our neighbors in need, and thus build a community together". Thank you for the continued support of the Fayetteville Duck Derby and Fayetteville Urban Ministry. Get ready for the Fayetteville Duck Derby 2016 Coming next Spring! Thank you for voting Fayetteville Urban Ministry's Fayetteville Duck Derby 910.483.5944 www.fayurbmin.org ANDREW PORTER. Democratic Strategist and Owner of Ballot 46 Consulting. COMMENTS? Editor@upandcomingweekly.com. 910.484.6200.