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8 UCW OCTOBER 12 - 18, 2022 WWW.UPANDCOMINGWEEKLY.COM OPINION North Carolina has divided govern- ment. Its most powerful executive is the Democratic governor, Roy Cooper. Four of the seven justices of the North Carolina Supreme Court are also Democrats. But Republicans enjoy majorities in the General Assembly and Court of Appeals, and hold six of the 10 offices on the Council of State. e latter officers, who form our ex- ecutive branch, aren't up for election this year. But the partisan composition of our legislative and judicial branches is very much in play. Republicans are trying desper- ately to expand their majorities in the North Carolina House and Senate to the three-fifths mark — what it takes to override Cooper's veto — and to recapture a majority on the Supreme Court. Democrats are trying desper- ately to stop them. Today's column focuses on the leg- islative contests. To reach a superma- jority, Republicans must win 72 of the 120 seats in the House and 30 of the 50 seats in the Senate. According to John Locke Founda- tion analysts Andy Jackson and Jim Stirling, the GOP enters the 2022 cycle with a reasonably solid base of 52 seats in the House and 22 in the Sen- ate, compared to the Democrats' 43 and 17, respectively. ese are districts where one party or the other enjoys a sizable advantage in party preference based on historical voting patterns. Jackson and Stirling rate them as either "safe" or "likely." e remaining districts, rated as either "leaning" or "tossup," represent the primary playing field for the 2022 mid- terms. (It is rare but not unheard of for a candidate to win a district rated "likely" for the other party, as one Democrat managed to do in 2018.) In general, conditions favor the GOP. President Biden is very unpopu- lar in North Carolina. e latest High Point University poll has his job disap- proval at 54%, similar to the latest ratings from East Carolina University's polling unit (53%) and Locke's Civitas Poll (55%). e party that doesn't hold the White House typically does well in midterms, and Democrats face a toxic mix of high-profile public concerns such as inflation and crime that will motivate many voters to turn out against them. Right now, however, the Republican edge appears modest. Each Civitas Poll contains a generic-ballot test. It asks likely voters which party's legisla- tive candidates they are planning to vote for. As recently as June, the GOP had an unprecedented 12-point lead in the generic ballot for state legisla- ture. By late September, Republican led by a margin of only 47% to 45%, well within the survey's margin of sampling error. To some extent, the trend reflects Democratic-leaning North Carolinians "coming home" to their usual partisan coalition, or simply becoming more likely to vote as the prospect of GOP gains becomes clearer to them. But it also probably represents some leaners and swing voters tilting Democratic on abortion. e issue has become more salient since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Keep in mind, though, that we don't conduct at-large elections for General Assembly. Even a modest GOP advantage statewide could tip enough competitive seats to produce supermajorities. In their analysis, Jackson and Stirling zeroed in on the "lean Demo- cratic" and "tossup" races. If Repub- licans win 14 of the 19 such races in the House, they get to 72 seats. In the Senate, they must win six of nine such races to hit the 30-seat mark. Some of these key districts are in urban areas, including two House and two Senate races in Wake County, three House and one Senate in Meck- lenburg, one of each in Cumberland and New Hanover, and House races in Guilford and Forsyth. But they also in- clude more-rural places such as Sen- ate District 3 in Northeastern North Carolina (Democrat Valerie Jordan vs. Republican Bobby Hanig) and Sen- ate District 4 in Greene, Wilson, and Wayne counties (Democratic incum- bent Toby Fitch vs. former Republican senator Buck Newton). Will the Republicans achieve their supermajorities? I haven't the foggiest idea. Neither does anyone else, claims to the contrary notwithstanding. Republicans aim for supermajorities by JOHN HOOD JOHN HOOD, Board Member, John Locke Foundation. COMMENTS? Editor@upandcomingweekly.com. 910-484-6200 Health, Vision, Dental Insurance Property and Casualty Insurance Retirement Benefits Paid Leave, Paid Holidays Cafeteria Plan (IRS Code Section 125) Cancer - Intensive Care or Critical Care Employee Assistance Program Flexible Spending TRICARE Supplement Benefits • • • • • • • • • hr@faytechcc.edu • (910) 678-7342 • (910) 678-8378 WE ARE ACTIVELY RECRUITING! We offer an excellent benefits package to include: To view the qualifications and/or apply for these and other positions, please visit our employment opportunities at https://faytechcc.peopleadmin.com/. For assistance or questions please contact FTCC Human Resources Start your new career with SCAN QR CODE FOR MORE INFORMATION: