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6A Daily News – Wednesday, November 16, 2011 Opinion Arab Spring, American winter D NEWSAILY RED BLUFF TEHAMACOUNTY T H E V O I C E O F T E H A M A C O U N T Y S I N C E 1 8 8 5 All Gaul was divided into three parts, Julius Caesar wrote in his "De Bello Gallico." For America, the Arab world had been divided into two: adversarial and acquies- cent Arab authoritarians. Until now. Greg Stevens, Publisher gstevens@redbluffdailynews.com Chip Thompson, Editor editor@redbluffdailynews.com Editorial policy The Daily News opinion is expressed in the editorial. The opinions expressed in columns, letters and cartoons are those of the authors and artists. Letter policy The Daily News welcomes let- ters from its readers on timely topics of public interest. All let- ters must be signed and pro- vide the writer's home street address and home phone num- ber. Anonymous letters, open letters to others, pen names and petition-style letters will not be allowed. Letters should be typed and cannot exceed two double-spaced pages or 500 words. When several letters address the same issue, a cross section of those submit- ted will be considered for publi- cation. Letters will be edited. Letters are published at the discretion of the editor. Mission Statement We believe that a strong com- munity newspaper is essential to a strong community, creating citizens who are better informed and more involved. The Daily News will be the indispensible guide to life and living in Tehama County. We will be the premier provider of local news, information and advertising through our daily newspaper, online edition and other print and Internet vehi- cles. The Daily News will reflect and support the unique identities of Tehama County and its cities; record the history of its com- munities and their people and make a positive difference in the quality of life for the resi- dents and businesses of Tehama County. How to reach us Main office: 527-2151 Classified: 527-2151 Circulation: 527-2151 News tips: 527-2153 Sports: 527-2153 Obituaries: 527-2151 Photo: 527-2153 On the Web www.redbluffdailynews.com Fax Newsroom: 527-9251 Classified: 527-5774 Retail Adv.: 527-5774 Legal Adv.: 527-5774 Business Office: 527-3719 Address 545 Diamond Ave. Red Bluff, CA 96080, or P.O. Box 220 Red Bluff, CA 96080 The last eight months have wit- nessed profound changes. The willing and unwilling Arab auto- crats have gone or are going the way of the dodo. What remains — Arab states without strong and authoritative leaders and caught up in lengthy, messy transitions, monarchies try- ing to co-opt and pre-empt trans- formational change (Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Jordan); and non- state actors still at war with them- selves (Hezbollah and the Pales- tinians) — guarantees a turbulent and complex environment for the United States. Few offer a hook on which to hang a set of American policies now broadly unpopular throughout the region. The long arc of the Arab Spring may yet bring more transparency, accountability, gender equality and, yes, even some semblance of real democracy. But the short term all but guarantees a much less hos- pitable and forbidding place for America, whose credibility has shrunk. For 50 years, America dealt with two kinds of Arab leaders: the adversarials (Syria, Libya and Iraq) and the acquiescents (Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan and a few key Persian Gulf states). At times, each of the adver- sarials also played the role of part- ners for brief periods: Iraq against Iran; Syria on the peace process; Libya on giving up WMD in exchange for an end to its pariah status. But leopards really do not change their spots. The violent ends of Saddam Hussein, Moam- mar Gadhafi and perhaps at some point even the younger Bashar Assad make the case. For the most part, these Arab authoritarians guaranteed a rela- tively stable and predictable region in which U.S. interests thrived: successful containment of the for- mer Soviet Union, access to oil at fair prices, security for Israel, close relations with the acquiescents and even progress on Arab-Israeli peacemaking. This left America with a role it understood and could play rather well. It wasn't pretty, of course. There was that pesky Arab-Israeli con- flict that drove a handful of wars, oil shocks, an Iranian revolution and Islamic extremism, and a few self-inflicted disasters such as Operation Iraqi Freedom. But by and large, the United States got by, its prestige high with acquiescent autocrats and low with their publics. And why not? America had cut the devil's bargain: In exchange for giving the friendly autocrats a pass on governance and human rights (and at times reaching out to the adversarials), it was able to enlist their cooperation on a range of issues. But Washington may now find itself in the strange position of getting neither democracy nor sta- bility. America's stock is lower than it's ever been, its partners are gone, along with the familiar bad guys, and it's not at all clear who or what will take the place of those partners. We confront not just an Arab Spring but an array of uncer- tainties complex enough to run many years to come. Tunisia, where it all began, appropriately offers the best chance for a working democracy, in part because it's small and large- ly irrelevant. In Egypt and Libya, where hopes have been high, you have to wonder. The former is less free, prosperous and secure than it was under Hosni Mubarak and is likely heading for a future like Turkey — but two decades ago. Libya, a country the size of Alas- ka with only 6 million people and a lot of oil money, should do well. But it isn't Western Europe. Rival militias, Islamist radicals, out- side meddling and just the lack of traditions and experience in self-governance guarantee that Libya will be a long slog. Guest View Aaron David Miller Elsewhere, matters look a lot worse. In Syria, nobody has a clue: The scenarios run from more of the same to civil war to an Alawite coup against the Assads — even the possibility (now don't shoot me) of some kind of external mil- itary intervention should the bloodletting rise exponentially. We can be pretty confident that whatever transpires, it will be long, complex and bloody. Yemen, which most people (including myself) don't really understand, is equally opaque. But dollars to doughnuts that won't be a polity of which Thomas Jefferson would have been proud. Strange as it seems, the monar- chies may well have the best shot at avoiding these kind of painful transitions. Where in varying degrees money, legitimacy from Islam and some enlightened lead- ership combine (Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, Oman), reck- onings have been averted. For how long is unclear. At some point, if they're not smart on reform — and even if they are — the bell may toll for the kings too. I know that people say, be patient, the arc of the Arab Spring is long and potentially a happy one. And for the Arabs, that may well be true. They are seizing control of their destiny and they will be allowed — as they should be, finally — to make their own beds. But for America, it may not be such a happy experience. Our policies, opposed from one end of this region to the other, are unlikely to change. Our capacity to succeed at war and peacemaking — the real measure of respect and admira- tion (Libya notwithstanding ) — has diminished along with our street cred. We can't solve the Palestinian issue, can't stop Iran from getting the bomb, can't find a way to achieve victories in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we are still caught up in the devil's bargain with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. We resemble more a modern- day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes and by our own illusions than a smart, tough and fair superpower. If we could disengage and spend more time and resources on our own broken house, we should; but alas, we can't. And therein lies the conundrum for America today: stuck in a region (with fewer friends) we can't fix or walk away from. Aaron David Miller, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, served as a Middle East negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations. Your officials STATE ASSEMBLYMAN — Jim Nielsen (R) State Capitol Bldg., Room 6031 Sacramento, CA 95814 (916) 319-2002; Fax (916) 319-2102 STATE SENATOR — Doug LaMalfa (R) State Capitol Bldg., Room 3070 Sacramento, CA 95814 (916) 651-4004; Fax (916) 445-7750 GOVERNOR — Jerry Brown, State Capitol Bldg., Sacramento, CA 95814; (916) 445-2841; Fax (916) 558-3160; E-mail: governor@gover- nor.ca.gov. U.S. REPRESENTATIVE — Wally Herger (R), 2595 Ceanothus Ave., Ste. 182, Chico, CA 95973; 893-8363. U.S. SENATORS — Dianne Feinstein (D), One Post Street, Suite 2450, San Francisco, CA 94104; (415) 393-0707. Fax (415) 393-0710. Barbara Boxer (D), 1700 Mont- gomery St., Suite 240, San Francis- co, CA 94111; (510) 286-8537. Fax (202) 224-0454. 'Circus' of family values Commentary Bil Keane's death put a lump in my throat. Keane, the creator of "The Family Circus," died at age 89 last week. I read his comic strip every day when I was growing up (now I read the papers on my computer and, regrettably, hardly get to see it). The strip's characters include Billy, 7; Dolly, 5; Jeffy, 3; and PJ, 1 1/2, as well as their mom and dad. It celebrates childhood inno- cence and the foibles of big-fam- ily life. According to The Washington Post, the very first strip, published Feb. 29, 1960, "is a drawing of a census taker who inquires of a puzzled woman surrounded by a roomful of toys: 'Any children?'" In another strip from the 1960s, a deliveryman is knocking on the front door and Dolly answers it. Her mother can be seen cleaning the shower beyond the man's view. "Come on in," says Dolly. "Mommy is in the bathtub." A strip from the 1970s shows Billy looking at a photo of his father. The caption reads: "Mommy, how did Daddy get so little?" A strip from the 1980s shows Jeffy asking his mom, "So what else did I do funny when I was lit- tle?" Keane's cartoons, based on his own experience as a father of five, reflect the values of the World War II generation. Keane was stationed in Aus- tralia during World War II and was smitten by a woman he met in the office complex they shared. After the war, he returned to Aus- tralia, married her and brought her to America, where they began their family. Since he was able to do his illustrations from home rather than an office, he was around his kids all day long. For many years he captured the simple suburban existence that millions of American fami- lies were experiencing -- certain- ly the one I experienced. My parents worked hard and saved money so they could move my sisters and me to a new, four- bedroom suburban home. Everything revolved around the well-being of us kids. They moved us close to a church to instill solid values in us. They sent us to a private Catholic school to give us a good educa- tion. Families didn't go to restau- rants much then -- they didn't do much of any- thing outside the house that cost money. And so our existence was much like that of "The Family Circus" -- everything centered on the home. Ours was filled with kids and chaos and neighbors and relatives always coming and going. In 1990, Keane explained to The New York Times how he approached the strip. "I don't just try to be harder to fend off outside influ- ences and graphic media images that are competing for their chil- dren's attention. Still, many are suc- ceeding at producing a loving, gentle, slightly chaotic family life like the one depicted n Keane's cartoons. The fact is, his 51- Tom Purcell funny," he said. "Many of my car- toons are not a belly laugh. I go for nostalgia, the lump in the throat, the tear in the eye, the tug in the heart." Well, as I said, Keane certain- ly has put a lump in my throat. The world has gotten a lot more cynical since "The Family Circus" began its run in 1960. Family life has certainly gotten messier for some. Parents have to work much year-old strip reflects values that will never go out of style -- love, respect, kindness, grati- tude, sacrifice -- and in our cynical times, we need to reinforce them more than ever. Lucky for us, one of Keane's sons, a father himself, will continue the strip. God bless you and your son, Bil Keane. ——— Tom Purcell, a humor columnist for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, is nationally syndicated exclusively by Cagle Cartoons newspaper syndicate. Visit Tom on the Web at www.TomPurcell.com or e-mail him at Purcell@caglecartoons.com.