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8A Daily News – Friday, July 8, 2011 Shifting terrain in a GOP proving ground ROCK HILL, S.C. (MCT) — Turning a South Carolina rally stage into a dance floor, Michele Bachmann grabbed her husband by the hand the other evening and began jitter- bugging to the rockabil- ly beat of Elvis Presley's "Promised Land." Bachmann told the friendly crowd outside Ripley's Aquarium in Myrtle Beach that she'll be the Republican candi- date against President Barack Obama in 2012 "if South Carolina has anything to say about it." This state hasn't been wrong yet. Its presiden- tial primary has an unblemished record of picking the eventual GOP nominee, serving as a Southern firewall for national front-run- ners who've been able to stop insurgent chal- lengers here every time. But that firewall may be collapsing; a primary that has reliably served the interests of the Republican establish- ment for decades may do the opposite next year. National front-runner Mitt Romney, the sort of candidate who might have been buttressed by South Carolina in the past, hasn't helped his cause. He skipped a tele- vised debate in Greenville, S.C., and has made just one appear- ance in the state since last year's election, though his campaign has begun moving quietly behind the scenes. Yet if Bachmann or another insurgent wins South Carolina — a dis- tinct possibility — it would reaffirm the "tea party" movement's right- ward pull on the GOP, with uncertain conse- quences for the nomina- tion fight and for Repub- lican chances of defeat- ing Obama. "It's not business as usual anymore," said Sheri Few, state director of Bachmann's cam- paign. In the past, "the GOP thought they had to reach out to the middle" to win, thus accounting for their embrace of establishment figures. Today, she said, there's a different formula: "Unit- ing the conservatives." Few, a grass-roots activist who is white, co-authored an absti- nence education curricu- lum aimed at African- Americans, according to the website of a statewide school reform group she heads. She's part of a conservative movement that elected a fiery tea party Republi- can, Nikki Haley, as governor in 2010. "This is a party with a core base that is uninter- ested in government solutions to problems. It's interested in the problem called govern- ment," said Tucker Eskew, an adviser to Republican former Gov. Carroll Campbell, an establishment titan in the 1980s and 1990s. The change began under the last governor, Mark Sanford, a tight- fisted libertarian best known for an extramari- tal affair with an Argen- tine girlfriend that ended his national ambitions. "Sanford left a mark," said Eskew, who is unaligned in the presi- dential race. "The over- all mood of the party became anti-big govern- ment, anti-government spending and very reluc- tant to play footsie with people who are regarded as part of the problem." Another motivator: Obama's ascent to the presidency. "I consider it divine intervention. God want- ed him to get in, because we were asleep," said Ruth Clark, fanning her- self in the 100-degree heat at a Bachmann rally in Lexington, S.C. Obama "scared the bejabbers out of me. I had never been fearful for our country till he got in the White House." The 51-year-old tea party activist regards Bachmann as fearless — "she's one tough little cookie" — and less of a compromiser than Mike Huckabee, whom she voted for in the 2008 primary. South Carolina's prominent spot in the primary calendar dates from 1980, when strate- gist Lee Atwater helped move his home state ahead of other Southern primaries to smooth Ronald Reagan's path to the nomination. Since then, it's become a bloody battleground. George W. Bush, reel- ing from a thumping at the hands of John McCain in the 2000 New Hampshire prima- ry, ran to his rival's right here and won. Along the way, McCain had to confront smears about his adopted daughter from Bangladesh (that she was his illegitimate black daughter) and attacks on his patriotism (McCain is a Vietnam War veteran). In desper- ation, McCain ran a TV ad charging Bush with twisting the truth, "like Clinton"; Bush respond- ed with an ad, shot at a South Carolina fishing camp, accusing the sen- ator of impugning his integrity. McCain's can- didacy never recovered. Huckabee was the most recent insurgent to falter in South Carolina, finishing second last time after a surprise vic- tory in Iowa. Pat Buchanan was derailed here in 1996 after upset- ting Bob Dole in New Hampshire. Bachmann, who spent two days of her announcement swing in South Carolina, is pri- vately wooing the estab- lishment, even if she defies that category. She met in Charleston with a prominent GOP donor, Robert Royall, a retired banker who was ambas- sador to Tanzania in the George W. Bush admin- istration. "We aim to be in South Carolina a lot," Bachmann told 300 sup- porters in Myrtle Beach. "We want to win South Carolina!" Among those cheer- ing was Barbara Stoltz, 54, of Ruffin, S.C., who drove more than three hours each way just to hear Bachmann. "We're friends on Facebook," she explained. The best chance for a traditional South Caroli- na finish — front-runner on top — may be the presence of several insurgent candidates splitting the vote. Along with the Minnesota con- gresswoman and other contenders, the field may include Texas Gov. Rick Perry, whose potential candidacy is piquing the interest of South Carolina politi- cians and activists attracted to his econom- ic message and tough talk. Glenn McCall, the state's Republican national committeeman, introduced Bachmann at a town hall meeting that attracted more than 400 people in Rock Hill, and said afterward that Perry "would draw a bigger crowd than this" if he got in. Romney invested heavily in South Caroli- na in 2008 but finished a distant fourth. And that was before Obama's health care plan put an unwelcome spotlight on Romney's record in Massachusetts, where he signed a law that provid- ed a model for the feder- al insurance mandate that Republicans strong- ly oppose. He also faces resis- tance to his Mormon religion from evangeli- cal Christians, who dominated the 2008 pri- mary. They have eased into the background as fiscal conservatives have become the most visible force in the party but remain a major factor. Romney "has got hills to climb," said Warren Tompkins, a longtime strategist who helped run the last Romney campaign but is unaligned now. "He's got to make the case: Who is the real Mitt Romney?" The front-runner has been lowering expecta- tions. But out of public view, his campaign organizers are starting to work the state, accord- ing to party official McCall, who is also neutral. Romney's state direc- tor, David Raad, said Romney "feels strongly about competing here in South Carolina. He's going to be here to win, contrary to what folks have written and said." One of Romney's first tasks will be reaching out to elected officials who supported him last time but are back on the sidelines, including Greenville County coun- cilmen Willis Meadows, 74, and Bob Taylor, 71. They were among 200 at a Bachmann rally in a Greenville shopping center parking lot the other day. "What she says res- onates," said Meadows. "She would probably be one of the leaders in South Carolina, because she's not perceived as being part of the estab- lishment and she would- n't have as much bag- gage." The former Romney supporters are taking a wait-and-see attitude on 2012, they said. 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