Issue link: http://www.epageflip.net/i/414261
So, that was fun. One minute we're prom- ised a half dozen toss up races to determine control of the United States Senate, and the next Democrats are ducking under their desks as Massachusetts and Maryland elected Republican governors. Let the "Very Important Pundits" take turns on cable news assigning blame for the losses. I'm more interested in why the polls didn't tell us the wave was coming. Mostoftheelectoralfore- casts that aggregated polls predicted a likely Republican takeover of the Senate, but each race was supposed to be close. Alaska and Iowa were supposed to be 1-point races. Only 2-3 percent separated the candidates in Colorado. New Hampshire and North Caro- lina were close, but Democrats were favored in those races. And that was just the public polls. Privately, Democratic poll- sters were not nearly as bear- ish. They spoke of the prob- lems polling Hispanics in Col- orado, the native population in Alaska, and the new African American influx into the At- lanta suburbs. There was com- plicated talk about the messed up statistical modeling in the public polls. We'll be fine in North Carolina, they assured all who paid to listen to their advice. The big picture gave no hint of the coming electoral wave. Barack Obama was no more unpopular than he was in 2013. The country told poll- sters they didn't particularly favor either political party. Voters told pollsters they hated congress more than two-day hangovers. Right up until the polls closed, all the king's horses and all the king's men were confident in their analysis that the election could go other way. Paul Begala, a smart man of good character, confidently told a national television au- dience that voters didn't hate Democrats so much that they wanted to reward Republi- cans. Lifeguards and surfers agreed; there was no wave coming. Then a tsunami came and wiped out the entire city. The only reason the 2014 midterms weren't worse is that Democrats had not won back all their losses from 2010. In other words, they didn't have much left to lose, but Republicans nearly cleaned them out. The Senate races in Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa were not close. Republicans won those big. North Carolina wasn't particularly close either, but the Republican won that, too. You know what was close? Mark Warner barely won re- election in Virginia, a race that was on no one's radar. Democrats spent the entire election complaining that polls were skewed against them, when in fact they were skewed in their favor. According to Nate Silver, who hasn't been wrong yet, the average Senate poll overestimated the Demo- crat's chance by 4 percent. This isn't the first time this has happened, and be- fore you start yelling about one party or the other, it hap- pens to both. Polls were bi- ased toward Democrats by 3-4 points in 1994 and 2002 and towards Republicans by 2-5 points in 1998, 2006, and 2012. In fact, it was the 2012 bias that probably led to the polling community to overcompensate by adjust- ing their turnout predictions for 2014, leading to a whole bunch of bad polls. Here's how that works. Imagine a state where 10 peo- ple live. If you assume six of them are white men over the age of 60, then you can as- sume that a Republican will win. If you assume six of them are African-American women of any age, then the polls will favor a Democrat. In extremely rudimentary terms, this is where mistakes begin. These days, polls are aggre- gated and examined by guys like Silver, so there is a ten- dency to not want one's poll to appear wrong by deviating from the consensus. These are called "outliers" and are immediately suspicious. So pollsters agree with each oth- er's assumptions, which is called "herding." And that's how they can all be wrong at the same time in the same way. We're never going to get this completely right be- cause humans are at the root of it, though it shouldn't take a brain surgeon to get a poll close enough to be useful in an election. If I'm going to see my team wiped off the map, I'd at least like to know it's coming. JasonStanfordisaregular contributor to the Austin American-Statesman, a Democratic consultant and a Truman National Security Project partner. You can email him at stanford@oppresearch. com and follow him on Twitter @JasStanford. JasonStanford When the herd is wrong about election results Cartoonist's take CAPTION It would be more-than-ap- propriate for all public meet- ings to ask veterans to stand so that those seated can see vets who gave some, and know that some gave all, who have se- cured this na- tion as a bea- con of freedom and an example to the nations of the world. We can all thank any veteran that we know or see, and say a prayer of thanks for those who have made the ultimate sacrifice. Whether sitting in a cockpit or in a cramped po- sition maintaining that same aircraft; whether slogging through mud, dust, swel- tering heat or bone-chill- ing cold as a Marine (happy 239th birthday) or a soldier, or in supply, logistics, staff or intell; whether at bat- tle stations or regular duty on a warship, carrier, ten- der or submarine; and those who have served in the Coast Guard protecting America's shores and going into harms way to save souls in dis- tress—all services are hon- ored and honorable. Regarding last Tuesday's election, one could respond with a variation of "neener, neener, told you so;" it would far better serve our collec- tive understanding to favor honest and insightful obser- vations. Locally, it does not appear that our conserva- tive-minded supervisors will veer from their course of fis- cal responsibility and com- mon sense. The likely new- est supervisor, Ms. Carlson, will have ample opportunity to demonstrate similar ju- dicious qualities before her next election. California's Republican Party, apparatus and fun- draising wisely focused on winnable races. The slight wavelet in the Golden State secured several seats in Sac- ramento; Democrats won't have supermajority status with which to indulge ev- ery wacky policy inclination and pay zero heed to minor- ity Republicans. As I wrote last week, our side may be able to help forestall "the fa- natical anti-business, anti- resource use, pro-public em- ployee union, pro-tax and pro-regulatory path" of the leftist progressives that run that town. According to electionpro- jection.com, while Democrat Aguilar added a blue seat to California's House delegation (CA-31), Republican Ose has won in CA-7 (R pick up) and Republican Tacherra (CA-16) is ahead in his race. Then, there's Arizona's close race between Republican retired Air Force Col. Martha Mc- Sally and Democrat Barber (R ahead by 341 ballots; D shenanigans over provisional ballots in Pima County may steal it yet). Combined with 2 House races in Louisiana that go to runoffs (and Re- publican wins) in December, Republicans may gain +17 net; 249 would be their high- est since 1929. Now, those numbers don't begin to tell the full story that I predicted last week, "a Republican landslide (and) the American elector- ate's repudiation of Obama- ism." Democrat excuses and rationalizations fall flat: Obama condescendingly dis- missing the results because "two-thirds didn't vote;" Democrats hypocritically complaining about "Koch brothers' money;" disingen- uous fairy tales about "voter suppression;" and whining about Fox News and talk ra- dio. None of those refute the wholesale route of Demo- crats from Governors offices and state legislative bodies totaling up to twice as many now run by Republicans. That should hopefully dimin- ish the hopes for Democrat gains going forward as their state farm teams and candi- date benches are reduced to lesser-known players. The titles of analytical pieces: "Midterms 'A Nu- clear Explosion,' The Worst Wall-To-Wall Shellacking You Will Ever See" (C. Krau- thammer), "The Democrats Waterloo" (V.D. Hansen) and "The Biggest Loser" (Matthew Continetti). That "Loser"? Hillary Clinton: "Hillary must convince Democrats that their savior is a grandmother who lives in a mansion on Massachu- setts Avenue…She will have to run against an energetic and motivated Republican party." "In many ways, she was the big loser on Tuesday because she embodies ev- erything that's wrong with Washington," Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. That's just for a start. The electorate looks forward rather than backward; no- body under the age of 40 is going to have personally fond memories of Bill Clin- ton's presidency. Nothing about Joe Biden, Nancy Pe- losi, Harry Reid or any other liberal dinosaurs inspires youthful optimism—the sta- bles of liberal and progres- sive policy bromides are in- variably reheated collectivist schemes from the past. They've had their time to shine and the economy is the most pathetic recovery since the Great Depression; Obam- acare is a rolling circus of deception, manipulation, failing promises and bloated expenses for the number of people actually served. Once the most offensive of elements are removed, or full repeal, it will wither as free market and state-based health care and insurance options are signed into place by a Republican president. In helping to explain Obama's political repulsive- ness (my term, not his), Pe- ter Berkowitz wrote, in "The Poverty of Obama's Pragma- tism," that "Obama is, after all, an ideologue. He seeks radically to transform Amer- ica both at home and in its role abroad. When Obama seeks to redistribute income and to lessen America's foot- print in world affairs" it's following an ideological vi- sion devoid of "an empirical analysis of what course of action will work best in the real world." Can you say "divided elec- torate?" Republicans see America going in the wrong direction, the economy not good, climate change not im- portant and a worse-off next generation. Dems take the opposite positions. I say, "We win, they lose," as Reagan once said of communism. Don Polson has called Red Bluff home since 1988. He can be reached by e-mail at donplsn@yahoo.com. The way I see it Great veterans; fine election Lifeguards and surfers agreed; there was no wave coming. Then a tsunami came and wiped out the entire city. GregStevens, Publisher Chip Thompson, Editor EDITORIAL BOARD How to have your say: Letters must be signed and provide the writer's home street address and home phone number. 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Box 220, 545 Diamond Ave., Red Bluff, CA 96080 Facebook: Leave comments at FACEBOOK.COM/ RBDAILYNEWS Twitter: Follow and send tweets to @REDBLUFFNEWS Assemblyman Dan Logue 150Amber Grove Drive, Ste. 154, Chico 95928, 530895- 4217 Senator Jim Nielsen 2634 Forest Ave., Ste. 110, Chico 95928, 530 879- 7424, senator.nielsen@sen- ate.ca.gov Governor Jerry Brown State Capital Building, Sacra- mento 95814, 916445-2841, fax 916558-3160, governor@ governor.ca.gov U.S. Representative Doug LaMalfa 507Cannon House Office Build- ing, Washington D.C. 20515, 202225-3076 U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein One Post St., Ste. 2450, San Francisco 94104, 415393- 0707, fax 415393-0710 U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer 1700Montgomery St., San Francisco 94111, 510286- 8537, fax 202224-0454 Contact your officials Don Polson California's Republican Party, apparatus and fundraising wisely focused on winnable races. The slight wavelet in the Golden State secured several seats in Sacramento; Democrats won't have supermajority status with which to indulge every wacky policy inclination and pay zero heed to minority Republicans. As I wrote last week, our side may be able to help forestall "the fanatical anti-business, anti-resource use, pro-public employee union, pro-tax and pro-regulatory path" of the leftist progressives that run that town. OPINION » redbluffdailynews.com Tuesday, November 11, 2014 » MORE AT FACEBOOK.COM/RBDAILYNEWS AND TWITTER.COM/REDBLUFFNEWS A6