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ByJeffBarnard TheAssociatedPress A new study released Monday found that warm- ing temperatures in Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of North America over the past century closely fol- lowed natural changes in the wind, not increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming. The study compared ocean surface temperatures from 1900 to 2012 to sur- face air pressure, a stand- in for wind measurements, and found a close match. "What we found was the somewhat surprising degree to which the winds can explain all the wiggles in the temperature curve," said lead author Jim John- stone, who did the work while a climatologist at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the Univer- sity of Washington. "So clearly, there are other factors stronger than the greenhouse forc- ing that is affecting those temperatures," he added. The study released by the online edition of the peer- reviewed journal Proceed- ings of the National Acad- emy of Sciences does not question global warming, but argues there is evidence that in at least one place, lo- cal winds are a more im- portant factor explaining ocean warming than green- house gases. It was greeted with skep- ticism by several main- stream climate scientists, who questioned how the au- thors could claim changes in wind direction and ve- locity were natural and un- related to climate change. They pointed out that the study sees a correlation but did not do the rigorous statistical and computer analysis to show that the cause of the wind changes were natural — the kind of analysis done when scien- tists attribute weather ex- tremes to global warming. "This may say more about the state of climate modeling than it says about causes of warm- ing in the Pacific North- west," Ken Caldeira, an at- mospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, said in an email. "The authors ... have not established the causes of these atmospheric pres- sure variations. Thus, claims that the observed temperature increases are due primarily to 'natural' processes are suspect and premature, at best." Johnstone and co-au- thor Nathan Mantua, a research scientist with the NOAA Fisheries Service in Santa Cruz, California, pointed to the fact that one steep ocean warming pe- riod from 1920 to 1940 pre- dates the big increases in greenhouse gases, and an ocean cooling period from 1998 to 2013 came while global average tempera- tures were at or near all- time highs. SCIENCE St udy l in ks c ha ng in g winds to Pacific warming By Ricardo Alonso- Zaldivar The Associated Press WASHINGTON Call it health care law numerology. The Obama administra- tion has had to revise and refine some initial enroll- ment numbers for health insurance sign-ups after they turned out to be too optimistic. At other times, metrics less favorable to the president's overhaul leaked out after officials claimed not to have such data. Parsing the numbers is a new pursuit for administra- tion officials from President Barack Obama on down, to lawmakers of both parties and a gaggle of outside an- alysts. The latest data tweak — an administration an- nouncement that 7.3 million paying customers signed up for subsidized private insur- ance as of mid-August — set off more speculation. Some said it may prove overly rosy. "They have been playing fast and loose with these numbers," said insurance industry consultant Rob- ert Laszewski, a critic of Obama's law who has also skewered proposals from the president's Republican foes. "Until we get an out- side audit we are not going to know what the heck is go- ing on." Others say an admin- istration trying to get a complex program running smoothly deserves the ben- efit of the doubt. "They have two chal- lenges," said Dan Men- delson, CEO of the mar- ket analysis firm Avalere Health. "One is technical implementation, and the second one is the political environment. Being fully open on the implementa- tion side is impossible in the context of a hostile political environment." Earlier this year, Avalere showed that the administration's initial numbers significantly over- stated Medicaid enrollment under the law. Candidates for Congress are noisily debating an- other set of numbers. They have to do with costs, an even murkier element. Re- publicans claim the law has saddled taxpayers and privately insured people with huge cost increases, while Democrats say it has helped to rein medical infla- tion, saving hundreds of bil- lions of dollars. Economists shrug off such claims, say- ing the impacts have gen- erally been modest — and mixed. The Affordable Care Act created new insurance markets — or exchanges— where middle-class people who don't have health cov- erage on the job can buy a subsidized private plan. It also expanded Medicaid to serve more low-income adults. After Medicare Admin- istrator Marilyn Tavenner announced the updated 7.3 million private sign-ups at a congressional hearing last week, other administration officials fanned out to in- sist that reporters must not compare those numbers to the more than 8 million en- rollments trumpeted in May. At the hearing, Tavenner seemed to have no such qualms. She explained to Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa, R- Calif., how to make such a comparison. The 8-million figure, she said, probably included some people who may since have found another kind of health insurance, either through a job that includes coverage or by qualifying for Medicaid. Others likely did not finalize their enroll- ment by paying their first month's premium Laszewski said even Tavenner's new, lower number could be high. He's skeptical because the ad- ministration hasn't shown how it's doing the math. And there are other vari- ables. Enrollment could de- cline later in the year be- cause about 115,000 people who couldn't prove they were citizens or legal resi- dents will lose coverage at the end of this month. ACA Sp in m et er : Ch an gi ng health law numbers MANUELBALCECENETA/THEASSOCIATEDPRESSFILE In this file photo, Medicaid Administrator Marilyn Tavenner testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington. By Terry Collins The Associated Press SAN FRANCISCO Crews scrambled Monday to extend control lines around a mas- siveNorthernCaliforniawild- fire threatening thousands of homes as they braced for strong, erratic winds similar to when the blaze doubled in size a week ago. The King Fire east of Sacramento had burned through 137 square miles, an increase of about 9 square miles overnight de- spite crews making some progress Sunday in cooler and slightly wet conditions. But expected warmer temperatures, low humid- ity and winds of up to 30 mph could increase fire ac- tivity, state fire spokesman Capt. Tom Piranio said. "This could set up some potential fire growth simi- lar to what we experienced when it grew exponentially last week," Piranio said. "We are working very ag- gressively to maintain the contingency lines." Last week, the blaze grew to 111 square miles over- night when winds surged to more than 25 mph, the state forestry and fire protec- tion department reported. More than 5,000 firefight- ers — from as far as Florida and Alaska — have worked around the clock to increase the fire containment from 10 to 18 percent by Monday. However, a red flag warning has been issued for Tuesday as gusty winds could reach up to 35 mph by Wednesday, said Holly Osbourne, a National Weather Service meteorol- ogist in Sacramento. "It's definitely going to pose a challenge to the control lines the firefight- ers have created," said Os- bourne, adding that there's also a slight chance for rain Thursday. The wildfire which started on Sept. 13 contin- ues to threaten about 21,000 structures, more than half of themhomes.Ithasdestroyed 10 homes and 22 outbuild- ings in the White Meadows area of Pollock Pines, accord- ing to preliminary figures re- leased Sunday. About 100 evacuees were allowed to return home, but some 2,700 remain under evacuation orders, state fire spokesman Daniel Berlant said. The fire also contin- ued to threaten a key Uni- versity of California, Berke- ley research station that is home to scores of experi- ments on trees, plants and other wildlife. On Sunday, poor air qual- ity forced a last-minute can- cellationoftwopopularIron- man events in nearby Lake Tahoe, disappointing about 3,000 athletes who signed up for the competition, Iron- manoperationsmanagerKe- ats McGonigal said. A man charged with starting the fire, Wayne Al- len Huntsman, 37, pleaded not guilty to arson Friday. He remains in the El Do- rado County jail on $10 mil- lion bail. 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