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4B Daily News – Tuesday, September 24, 2013 11 ways to tell if Obamacare is working By Ryan Teague Beckwith Digital First Media How will we know if Obamacare is working? When the online health insurance marketplaces launch on Oct. 1, the 2010 health care law signed by President Obama will finally be put to the test. Whether it succeeds or fails will be determined over the next two years. Here's a closer look at measures that can tell us how the law is doing. Are there any serious problems with the rollout? The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the software behind the federally run marketplaces can't reliably give price quotes, forcing people to sign up offline. There have also been concerns over the securiRespecting People. Impacting Business Call us. And get back to work. Call us any time for: • An extensive network of recruiting sources • Testing and training • Experienced recruiters • Full-time employees • HR expertise and support services • Temporary Workers • Evaluation hire • Carefully screened candidates • Dedicated service ty of private information. How to judge it: Some glitches are bound to happen, but the key test is how long it takes to resolve them. Problems lasting more than a few days could hurt signups. How many people use the online marketplaces? The Congressional Budget Office estimated that seven million people would sign up for insurance on the new online marketplaces in 2014, but a survey of Wall Street investors showed they expect only about four million to use them. How to judge it: Anything below seven million will be criticized for falling short of expectations. How are the marketplaces doing at key deadlines? Experts expect people to sign up for insurance in waves. The first will be right after the market- TOM'S places open on Oct. 1. The second will be before Dec. 15, the deadline to buy a policy that starts on the new year. And the last is just before March 31, the last day to buy 2014 coverage before receiving a tax penalty. How to judge it: The first two deadlines will give a sense of whether there are major problems, but given how many people wait until the last minute to file their taxes, the third is the most important. How many people enroll in Medicaid? The Congressional Budget Office estimated that eight million people will enroll in Medicaid through the expansion of eligibility in 2014. That's far below previous estimates because the Supreme Court allowed states to opt out of the expansion. How to judge it: This should come in on target because it's an existing government program, so anything below eight mil- Glass & Muffler 214 MAIN ST., RED BLUFF 530 527-5767 ✓ TUNE-UPS ✓ SMOGS ✓ AIR CONDITIONERS ✓ AUTO GLASS ✓ MUFFLERS ✓ GENERAL 530-527-0727 243 So. Main Street www.expresspros.com REPAIRS 5am to 11pm ONE STOP ✓Check out our selection of beer, wine & tobacco Your One Stop Convenience Store 714 Walnut St., Red Bluff lion is a cause for concern. How many states accept the Medicaid expansion? Twenty-six states have accepted the Medicaid expansion as of mid-September. Though a few states, such as Texas, are unlikely to accept the expansion, governors in several other states are either considering it or pushing for it. How to judge it: Any more states accepting the expansion would be a positive sign for the law, though the total is unlikely to go higher than 35 by the end of next year. How many Americans are uninsured? Some people using the marketplaces already have insurance, so the total number of uninsured covered through the marketplaces and Medicaid in 2014 is expected to be 11 million. That's a cut into the 48 million Americans the U.S. Census Bureau estimated were uninsured in 2012. How to judge it: A drop of 11 million uninsured would bring the number total number of uninsured to levels not seen since the late 1990s, a major talking point for supporters. How many people are uninsured in key states? Some states have embraced the law, expanding Medicaid, setting up insurance exchanges and promoting signups. They'll be the best test of whether the law works, so look at the number of uninsured in those states at the end of next year. How to judge it: For big states, California and New York are good bellwethers. Among midsized states, Colorado and Maryland. And for smaller states, Oregon and Vermont. Are there enough doctors to serve all the newly insured? Millions of newly insured Americans are expected to exacerbate a shortage of primary care doctors in some parts of the country. While lawmakers have considered some solutions, such as using more nurses, those may not take effect immediately. How to judge it: This is unavoidable. If the law works well, then there will be more people seeing doctors. Are health care costs increasing more slowly? In May, monthly health-care costs dropped for the first time since 1975. That was likely a blip, but the rise in health-care costs h a s s l o w e d substantially over the last four years. No one's sure if that's due to the economy or changes in how health care is delivered. How to judge it: The Center for Medicare Services expects health-care costs togrow at a rate of 5.8 percent over the next decade, so anything higher than that is a cause for concern. Do any prominent Republicans change their minds? One remarkable fact about the law is how consistent and uniform Republican opposition has been, with a few exceptions. But now that it's going into effect, that may change. Will any Republican pundits or officials change their minds on the law this year? How to judge it: It's much more likely that a pundit, especially a contrarian like Newt Gingrich, or a retired politician will make the leap, but a governor or two may also be in the mix. How many people approve of the law in polls? A Gallup poll in June showed that 52 percent of A m e r i c a n s disapproved of the law, while only 44 percent approved. But there's a stark party divide: 89 percent of Republicans disapproved, while 79 percent of Democrats approved. Among independents, 53 percent disapproved. How to judge it: The partisan divide isn't going away soon, so look at independents. Any uptick of more than three percentage points (the margin of error) in the next Gallup poll would be a good sign for the law. FREEDOM FROM DEBT! 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