Issue link: https://www.epageflip.net/i/658783
69 BAY AREA NEWS GROUP PLAY BALL 1.ChicagoCubs Lastyear:97-65,thirdplace (lost to New York Mets in NLCS) Keylosses:2B Starlin Castro, RHP Jason Motte Keynewcomers:OF Jason Heyward, RHP John Lackey, INF/OF Ben Zobrist, RHP Adam Warren Best-casescenario: The talented veteran additions fuse with a team loaded with young stars, and it all comes together for the Cubs' first World Series title since 1908. Worst-casescenario: Heightened expectations lead to sophomore slumps for Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber, and 2016 turns into another letdown season on the North Side. Hotprospect: SS Gleyber Torres was signed out of Venezuela in 2013 and already has had minor league success. 2. Pittsburgh Pirates Lastyear:98-64, second place (lost to Chicago Cubs in NL wild-card game) Keylosses:2B Neil Walker,3B Pedro Alvarez,RHP Joakim Soria,LHP J.A.Happ Keynewcomers:LHP Jon Niese, RHP Ryan Vogelsong, RHP Juan Nicasio, 1B John Jaso Best-casescenario:Arosterthat'sstill talentedwithoutWalkerandAlvarezleans onthepitchingstaff(3.21ERAin'15)for afourthstraightplayoffappearance. Worst-casescenario:The offense loses something without the Walker- Alvarez duo, and although the Central has plenty of wins available, thanks to the Reds and Brewers, Pittsburgh is on the outside of the wild-card hunt. Hotprospect:RHP Tyler Glasnow is a dominant starter with an imposing 6-foot-8, 225-pound mound presence. 3. St. Louis Cardinals Lastyear:100-62, first place (lost to Chicago Cubs in NLDS) Keylosses:RF Jason Heyward, RHP John Lackey Keynewcomers:RHP Mike Leake, RHP Seung-hwan Oh, INF Jedd Gyorko, C Brayan Peña Best-casescenario:Theteamcontinues toshowitknowshowtowin,anddespite losingHeywardandLackeytotherival Cubs,St.Louiskeepsholdofthedivision. Worst-casescenario:C Yadier Molina, who injured his thumb in the playoffs, misses significant time or isn't the same player, and the Cards miss the postseason for the first time since '10. Hotprospect:RHP Alex Reyes has a fastball in the upper 90s, but he starts the year with a 50-game suspension for testing positive for marijuana. 4. Milwaukee Brewers Lastyear:68-94, fourth place Keylosses:RHP Francisco Rodriguez, 1B Adam Lind, LF Khris Davis, SS Jean Segura Keynewcomers:3B Aaron Hill, 1B Chris Carter Best-casescenario: It's an all-out rebuild for the Brewers, so the best thing that could happen would be the emergence of any expendable players that could net value in a trade. Worst-casescenario:When you're aiming to be bad, the only worst-case scenario is to be surprisingly mediocre. Hotprospect:SS Orlando Arcia is one of baseball's top 10 prospects, and the Venezuelan should be an exciting piece sometime soon. 5. Cincinnati Reds Lastyear:64-98, fi h place Keylosses: LHP Aroldis Chapman, 3B Todd Frazier Keynewcomers:None Best-casescenario: There's very little to hang their hat on for the Reds, who might be happy to simply avoid 100 losses. Worst-casescenario:In a top- heavy division with three returning playoff teams, Cincinnati could easily finish with MLB's worst record — but there's competition for that with several other awful NL squads. Hotprospect:RHP Robert Stephenson, a graduate of Martinez's Alhambra High, could make his ML debut in 2016. 1. New York Mets Lastyear:90-72, first place (lost to Kansas City Royals in World Series) Keylosses:2B Daniel Murphy, RHP Jenrry Mejia (lifetime PED suspension) Keynewcomers: 2B Neil Walker, SS Asdrubal Cabrera Best-casescenario:The Mets get 162 games of spark from Yoenis Cespedes a er he re-signed, and the game's best pitching rotation returns New York to the World Series. Worst-casescenario: October hero Murphy's absence is felt, with Walker not able to handle the Big Apple spotlight, and even with the great pitching, the Mets are overtaken by the Nationals. Hotprospect:LHP Steven Matz went 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six regular- season MLB starts last year, giving this staff another ridiculously good arm. 2. Washington Nationals Lastyear:83-79, second place Keylosses: RHP Jordan Zimmermann, RHP Drew Storen, 3B Yunel Escobar Keynewcomers:2B Daniel Murphy, OF Ben Revere, RHP Shawn Kelley, LHP Oliver Perez, RHP Yusmeiro Petit Best-casescenario:New manager Dusty Baker repairs the clubhouse that became unraveled under Matt Williams and rides the NL's best player (Bryce Harper) back to the playoffs. Worst-casescenario:Baker struggles in his return to the bench, and Washington lets another year slip by without winning a playoff series. Hotprospect:RHP Lucas Giolito is back to full strength a er Tommy John surgery cost him 2012-13, and the former first-round pick is one of baseball's best pitching prospects. 3. Miami Marlins Lastyear:71-91, third place Keyloss:RHP Henderson Alvarez Keynewcomer:LHP Wei-Yin Chen Best-casescenario:Manager Don Mattingly proves the right fit in Miami, which welcomes having a full season of ace Jose Fernandez and slugger Giancarlo Stanton to stay in the hunt in the East. Worst-casescenario: A more stable season — one that doesn't include your GM taking over as manager — doesn't lead to more wins, and the gap between the good East teams and the bad ones continues. Hotprospect: RHP Tyler Kolek has a heater in the high 90s but needs better control of it before he's ready for Miami. 4. Philadelphia Phillies Lastyear:63-99, fi h place Keyloss:RHP Ken Giles Keynewcomers:RHP Jeremy Hellickson, RHP David Hernandez, RHP Charlie Morton Best-casescenario:Ryan Howard can show enough to allow the Phillies to trade him to the AL and turn first base over to Darin Ruf and continue their full rebuild. Worst-casescenario:The Phillies win enough games to deny them a top-three pick in the dra , throwing a wrench in their plans to tear the team apart and start over again. Hotprospect:SS J.P. Crawford is considered a future building block of the franchise, but the Phillies won't rush him for a team that won't contend this year. 5. Atlanta Braves Lastyear:67-95, fourth place Keylosses:SS Andrelton Simmons, RHP Shelby Miller, OF Cameron Maybin Keynewcomers:CF Ender Inciarte, SS Erick Aybar, 3B Gordon Beckham Best-casescenario:Atlanta starts to see something from the high-end prospects it acquired in trades the past two offseasons, and some momentum builds for the move to a new stadium in 2017. Worst-casescenario:See Phillies. Tanking is in vogue, and this roster is built to accomplish that. Anything less is probably disappointing for the long-term success. Hotprospect: SS Dansby Swanson was the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 and acquired from Arizona in the Miller trade. THELEAGUE RatingtheNLCentral Rating the NL East GETTY IMAGES