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ByRicardoAlonso- Zaldivar The Associated Press WASHINGTON Seeking a strong showing in Presi- dent Barack Obama's last year in office, the adminis- tration said Thursday 11.3 million people have en- rolled for health law cover- age with three weeks still left in the sign-up season. But a major indepen- dent survey out simulta- neously showed that prog- ress reducing the number of uninsured Americans stalled last year. The Gal- lup-Healthways Well-Being Index found the uninsured rate among adults essen- tially unchanged in 2015, raising concerns about the lasting impact of Obama's signature legislation. "Enrollment is grow- ing, though less quickly than anticipated," said Larry Levitt, who follows the health overhaul for the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. "The law is hardly collapsing, as crit- ics have suggested, but it continues to be unclear whether it will ultimately be the success that advo- cates had hoped." Administration officials exuded confidence in a call with reporters. "The marketplace con- tinues to be stable, vibrant and growing," said Andy Slavitt, head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which adminis- ters the health overhaul's online insurance market. Officials said enrollees are trending younger, and a growing share of return- ing customers has grown savvy about comparing insurance options to find the best deals. The admin- istration is expecting a surge of young procrasti- nators to sign up near the Jan. 31 deadline for 2016 coverage. That could help hold down premiums the following year. Leading the adminis- tration's tally was Flor- ida, with more than 1.5 million signed up. Califor- nia followed, with more than 1.4 million. About 8 in 10 customers are eligi- ble for federal tax credits to bring down the cost of their monthly premiums. The administration ap- pears on track to meet its target of having 10 million paying customers signed up at the end of this year. In the 38 states served by the federal HealthCare. gov website, 29 percent of those signed up were new customers, a big priority. Overall, more than 1 in 4 was between the ages of 18 and 34, a coveted de- mographic since healthy young adults balance older customers who are more prone to medical problems. Independent experts cautioned about drawing sweeping conclusions. In past years, there's been a significant drop-off be- tween the initial sign-up numbers and those who actually followed through by paying their premiums. Caroline Pearson of the consulting firm Avalere Health said the numbers on young adults represent a "modest improvement" from last year. Another caveat: Ad- ministration officials said they are unable to tell how many new enrollees were previously uninsured. Since the health care law's big coverage expansion got underway in 2014, the na- tion's uninsured rate has come down to historically low levels. But a major in- dependent survey also re- leased Thursday indicated that accomplishment may be in jeopardy. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index found that the share of U.S. adults without health in- surance was 11.9 percent in the last three months of 2015, essentially un- changed from the start of the year. INSURANCE US s ee ks s tr on g fin is h on health care sign-ups By Seth Borenstein The Associated Press WASHINGTON Get ready for weather whiplash as powerful climatic forces elbow each other for star- ring roles in a weird win- ter show. The spine-chilling po- lar vortex is taking center stage in Europe and bring- ing persistent cold to much of North America — except in Hollywood, where soggy El Niño won't give up the spotlight. After El Niño delivered a balmy Christmas Eve to the eastern U.S. and shat- tered national records with a warm, wet and wild De- cember, Minnesota may host one of the coldest NFL playoff games in his- tory this Sunday, with wind chills around 20 below, me- teorologists predict. "The biggest thing is this whiplash," said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtado. "It's going to be a shock for people." The center of the cold blast starts this weekend in the U.S. in the upper Midwest, and then moves to the Hudson Bay area next week, while in Europe it starts in the east and north and then spreads, Furtado said. Europe may have to get used to temper- atures 20 or so degrees be- low normal. "Temperature will be dominated by the impact of the polar vortex," said Judah Cohen, seasonal fore- cast chief for the private Atmospheric and Environ- mental Research company outside Boston. It will feel similar to 2013 and 2014, he said. Americans became pain- fully familiar with the po- lar vortex during those win- ters. This time, America's winter temperatures will depend on when the wet and warm El Niño pushes itself back to prominence, Furtado said. For a winter this dra- matic, it may help to con- sult the program: Thecast The star is El Niño, a vet- eran of this stage for a few decades now. This natu- ral warming of the central tropical Pacific occurs ev- ery two to seven years or so, and changes weather worldwide, especially in the Americas and Asia. It is closely associated with heavy rain in California, and general warming. It has less effect in Europe because that's further away. With its flipside, La Nina, it is known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and it lasts about a year. Playing off against El Niño is the Arctic Oscilla- tion, and its index measures differences in atmospheric pressure between the Arc- tic and mid-latitudes. When the AO is positive in the winter, polar air stays trapped up north and the weather is relatively mild further south. When the AO is negative, the cold Arc- tic air escapes and plunges into lower latitudes, treat- ing the United States and Europe to the polar vortex — a swirling air mass that carries spine-chilling tem- peratures. The North Atlantic Oscil- lation is a bit player with a big influence over Europe's weather. As with its Arc- tic cousin, the more nega- tive its index, the colder the continent becomes. The jet streams also are important to watch. These riversofairheavilyinfluence local weather everywhere, carrying storms and clear- ing skies around the planet. Usually in the winter, the jet stream that affects most people in the United States and Europe moves relatively straight from west to east. But when it weakens, it can plunge south and north and even get stuck at times, cre- ating odd extremes. Act 1 This was last month. El Niño appeared in classic form, tying 1997-1998 for the strongest on record. The Arctic Oscillation was very positive, trapping cold air in northern latitudes. With so many warm, wet days further south, spring flowers popped up and trees bloomed in December. El Niño often spawns winter tornadoes in the southern U.S. and they ap- peared on cue, killing two dozen people in just four days. The heavy rain that flooded the Mississippi River Valley isn't usually an El Niño signature though, Cohen said. Act 2 The switch flipped: The Arctic Oscillation and its North Atlantic sidekick went negative big time. This time, there's cold air, but it's mostly dry so far, despite El Nino, which still spawns a series of rain- storms hitting California. Meteorologists say wetter weather could bring heavy snowstorms, but that's not likely for another week or more, although cities along the Great Lakes may get lake effect snow. So far the east-moving moisture from El Niño is staying south of the Arc- tic plunge, but that may change. Act 3 No spoilers here. Will the polar vortex hold the stage for weeks or months? Will the cold AO and wet El Niño combine for whopper snow- storms? Rutgers' Francis doesn't think the moisture and the cold can keep avoiding each other, saying "we're going to have major major dumps of snow. We just don't know where." Furtado predicts El Niño will push aside the cold in America, but not in Europe, where it has less of an influ- ence. Cohen is less certain about what will happen as these forces morph and in- teract over time. WEATHER Winter hits weird stage nationally; here's the players NICKLOVERDE—THEASSOCIATEDPRESSFILE The United States side of Niagara Falls in New York has begun to thaw a er the recent "polar vortex" that affected millions in the U.S. and Canada. This could be your lucky day by helping a dog or cat find a loving home from... 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