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8A Daily News – Tuesday, March 13, 2012 Divergent views on bullet train LOS ANGELES (MCT) — The bullet trains that would someday streak through California at 220 mph are, in the vision of their most ardent support- ers, more than just a trans- portation system. They are also a means to alter the state's social, residential and economic fabric. But those broader ambi- tions are triggering an increasingly strident ideo- logical backlash to the mas- sive project. The fast trains connect- ing Los Angeles and San Francisco would create new communities of high-densi- ty apartments and small homes around stations, reducing the suburbaniza- tion of California, rail advo- cates say. That new lifestyle would mean fewer cars and less gasoline consumption, lowering California's con- tribution to global warm- ing. The rail system also would reduce the economic and transportation isolation of the Central Valley, which would grow by 10 million or even 20 million people, according to Gov. Jerry Brown. "We are going to have to live closer together" and accommodate growth in more environmentally sus- tainable ways, Brown said in a recent interview. "The high-speed rail will be built in that vein." Opponents, most of whom are political conserv- atives, regard the ambitious project as a classic govern- ment overreach that will require taxpayer subsidies. But they also see something more sinister: an agenda to push people into European or Asian models of dense cities, tight apartments and reliance on state-provided transportation. In their view, the ratio- nale of the rail system rests on flawed assumptions that would undermine Califor- nia's identity, which during the last half-century has revolved around single- family homes that have dri- asserts that the state will have 60 million people by 2050, up from the current 37.3 million, with most of the growth in the agricultur- al heartland. The project "is based on an optimistic assessment of where California is going," Brown said after the plan was released. Academic experts say ven economic growth, fam- ily-oriented lifestyles and signature West Coast recre- ation. "It is a real movement in California of controlling the masses, controlling land use, deciding where people should live," said Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare. "I oppose that absolutely, because it is a form of left- wing social engineering." When voters approved funding for the rail system in 2008, it was promoted as nonpartisan. Even some Republicans supported it. But the $98.5 billion pro- ject has taken on powerful political and philosophical overtones as it has matured. It now reflects much broad- er conflicts about the state's future, government spend- ing and, most important, efforts to change the way people live. Whether California's classic style of growth, which created population clusters in the San Fernan- do Valley, Orange County and the Inland Empire, is sustainable is a matter of sharp political debate. But the justification for high- speed rail depends on something even more basic: projections that the state's population will continue growing rapidly. The California High- Speed Rail Authority's business plan for the project the growth models that put the state's population at 60 million by mid-century lack credibility. And the state Department of Finance is now revising official popu- lation projections down- ward. Walter Schwarm, a state demographer, said the lower estimates are based on three factors: California overestimated its popula- tion before the 2010 cen- sus; as many people will move out of the state in the future as move in; and Lati- no birthrates are declining. "We have always assumed in the past that we were a strong magnet for individuals, but now we are looking like every other state. People move in and people move Schwarm said. out," The state's economic outlook also raises ques- tions about whether it can support a bigger popula- tion, particularly in the Central Valley, racked by some of the highest unem- ployment in the nation. "What are all of these 10 million additional people going to be doing for a liv- ing in the Central Valley?" asks University of Southern California historian and author Kevin Starr. "You have to ask are these going to be 10 million more tax- payers or 10 million people who have to be supported by other taxpayers?" Starr has written that the state's boom after World War II revolved around sin- gle-family homes, an out- come that "had its psycho- logical origins in the deep- est recesses of American identity." It led, he said in his book "California Dreams," to "a tidal wave of marriage, sexuality, pro- creation and family build- ing." The bullet train is sup- posed to help rewrite that blueprint. The rail authority paid Calthorpe Associates, a Berkeley-based urban plan- ning company, $1.6 million for a report, "Vision Cali- fornia: Charting Our Future," which laid out the case for compact communi- ties reducing demand for residential land, single- family homes, vehicles, energy and water. Company principal Peter Calthorpe said in a New York City speech in November that high-speed rail is more than a technolo- gy to move people. "It is the thing that lays the groundwork for the kinds of communities that are possible," he said. "It is not just the cost of high- speed rail versus the alter- native highways and air- ports. It is the cost differ- ence between two different lifestyles that inevitably emerge." Calthorpe's ideas are anathema to conservatives. "It has nothing to do with transportation. This is entirely social policy," said Rep. Tom McClintock, R- Granite Bay. "It is all about the far left's fever dream to get mother Earth back to a pristine condition by elbowing us into these dense urban cores." Calthorpe said conserva- tives mischaracterize his ideas. "They turn it around, like Republicans always do, and say we want to force everybody into apart- ments." One exception is Trans- portation Secretary Ray LaHood, the lone Republi- can in the Obama Cabinet, who disagrees with rail opponents in his party. "They are not in sync with the people they represent. I am a Republican and I am leading the charge on high- speed rail and proud of it." Leaders in the home building and agriculture industries remain skeptical. Mike Winn, president of the California Building Industry Association, said his members believe that at least half of future home buyers will want detached family homes, not the 30 percent that some govern- ment agencies project. "This has been devel- oped and designed as a sub- urban state," Winn said. "It won't change in one gener- ation. Sure, you can bemoan the long com- mutes, but you are not going to undo the cultural allure of living in a single- family home." The rail authority also argues that the bullet train will preserve farmland by concentrating growth in city centers. It's a laudable goal, but not a believable one, said Chris Scheuring, an environmental attorney at the California Farm Bureau Federation. High-speed rail "directly and immediately eats up farmland," he said. "The beneficiaries are urban and the people holding the bag are rural. My guys are look- ing at this as a real loser for agriculture." The argument that the rail line would concentrate population in the cities is "just a hypothesis. The counties are still going to be seduced by highways and commercial development." Even the argument that the rail system would reduce greenhouse gases — the rail authority claims savings of 3 billion pounds of carbon dioxide annually — is questioned. Robert Poole, a trans- portation specialist at the libertarian Reason Founda- tion, said the Obama administration's push to improve automobile fuel efficiency would cause a significant drop in carbon dioxide emissions, apart from the rail project. In addition, building hundreds of miles of bullet train bridges and tunnels is so carbon-intensive it would take decades for the system to break even on greenhouse gas emissions. A 2010 UC Berkeley study asserted that the rail system, based on the medi- an estimate of riders, would take 71 years to break even in greenhouse gas emis- sions. Mikhail Chester, an author of the study, said adjustments for cleaner electricity generation and other factors in the future could yield a net reduction in greenhouse gases in 30 years. That's still a costly trade- off for Poole. "It is like using an atomic bomb to kill a housefly," he said. The sharply divergent views of high-speed rail reflect larger divisions in charting the state's future, Starr said. "The arguments for and against the train go right to the core of the unresolved nature of politics in Califor- nia," he said. CA preacher concedes apocalypse prediction wrong SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A Califor- nia preacher who convinced thousands of followers that the world would end has posted an online letter conceding he has no evidence of an impending apocalypse and will no longer predict global doom. In a missive posted Thursday on his independent ministry's site, 90-year-old Harold Camping said he was asking for for- giveness for his sin in predicting Judgment Day, and has stopped trying to pinpoint future dates. ''We realize that many people are hoping they will know the date of Christ's return,'' Camping wrote. ''We humbly acknowledge we were wrong about the timing.'' Through the Newspapers in Education program, area classrooms receive the Red Bluff Daily News every day thanks to the generosity of these local businesses & individuals. THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING NEWS DAILY RED BLUFF E VOICE OF TEHA M A C O U N T Y S I N C E 1 8 8 5 NEWSPAPERS TEHAMACOUNTY Camping's Family Radio International broadcasts his messages from the nonprof- it's headquarters in a squat building near the Oakland airport. In recent years, the organi- zation spent millions of dollars — some of it from listeners' donations — putting up thousands of billboards plastered with his prediction of the Rapture. Marie Exley, 33, was among those who spent her own money to put up apocalypse- themed billboards in Colorado, and later met her husband while passing out Bible tracts in Japan. The pair traveled through Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq to publicize Camping's prophecy and spent May 21 holed up in Montana waiting for the end. She said Thursday she was glad that the Christian preacher had acknowledged he didn't know everything about the Rapture. ''Sure, I was looking forward to it, but it's actually a blessing to reconnect with family and friends,'' said Exley, who is writ- ing a screenplay about her experience. ''I think it was good for Mr. Camping to hum- ble himself and admit he was wrong and take the heat for that ... but I should have done more careful studying and been more cautious about what I was proclaiming myself.'' Save on your classified with these coupons! You choose the number of times! 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