Red Bluff Daily News

August 01, 2014

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ByJoshBoak The Associated Press WASHINGTON For mil- lions of workers, happy days aren't quite here again. Though the U.S. unem- ployment rate has plunged since the start of last year to a five-year low of 6.1 per- cent, the Gallup Organiza- tion has found that consum- ers' view of the economy is the glummest it's been in seven months. The July jobs report be- ing released Friday will likely show a sixth straight month of healthy 200,000- plus gains. Yet for mil- lions of people like Doug- las Hunter, not much has changed. Hunter earned $14 an hour cleaning oil drums before the Great Recession seized the economy and his job was axed. At 53, Hunter now works three days a week for $9.25 an hour, mopping floors and fixing fryers at two McDonald's restaurants in Chicago. "If the economy is get- ting better, I'm not sure for whom," he said. "It certainly hasn't trickled down to me." The Gallup Organization has found that consumers' view of the economy is the glummest it's been in seven months. As the economic recov- ery enters its sixth year, a number of factors help ex- plain why many Americans don't feel better off: Income hasn't rebounded. Millions are working part time even though they want full- time jobs. It's taking lon- ger to find work. People are still struggling with mort- gage debt. Some feel down about the economy because of their political views. And most people don't feel free to spend as much as they used to. A closer look at the fac- tors: Laggingincome Most people are still earning less, adjusted for inflation, than before the recession struck at the end of 2007. Even many who kept their jobs through the recession — or easily found work after being let go — are no better off. The typ- ical family income in cur- rent dollars is $52,959, ac- cording to Sentier Research. Factoring in inflation, that's $3,303 less than before the recession — a nearly 6 per- cent drop. That helps explain the nagging discontent that some people feel about the economy even as the un- employment rate has sunk from a peak of 10 percent in 2009. Many Americans have heard about the econ- omy's steady recovery with- out feeling they've benefited from it. A review by Wells Fargo found that after-tax income fell for the bottom 20 per- cent of earners and barely rose for the next-highest 20 percent during the re- covery. "Wages are just not keep- ing up," said Christine Ow- ens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project. "We don't have an economy that is as robust as we need it to be." Fewer full-time jobs Finding a steady full- time job has become harder. There are 27.4 million part- time jobs, representing 18.8 percent of jobs in the U.S. economy, according to the Labor Department. Before the recession, 16.5 percent of all jobs were part time. Some of this increase is due to the still-sluggish re- covery: Employers want to cut costs and payrolls by limiting their workers to fewer than 35 hours a week. But the trend might also reflect a lasting shift among restaurants and cof- fee shops, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. "A lot of companies have figured out that they didn't need employees to sell cof- fee between 2 and 4 p.m. that nobody is buying," Sil- via said. Employers slow to hire The "Help Wanted" signs are out: There were 4.6 mil- lion available jobs in May, according to government data, the most in seven years and 20 percent more than a year ago. Yet not enough of those jobs are being filled. Steven Davis, an econ- omist at the University of Chicago, and two col- leagues calculated that it took an average of more than 25 days for employers to fill a vacant job in May. That was up from an aver- age of 22.5 days last year and is the longest such fig- ure in the 13 years that the data has been tracked. That suggests a mis- match in the job market: The unemployed might not have the skills companies want for the available jobs. Or businesses might not be offering enough pay or try- ing hard enough to fill the jobs. Behind on mortgages Whatever wealth most Americans have is mainly tied up in their homes. But roughly seven years after the housing bust, owning a home has still been a bad investment for many. Nearly 37 percent of mortgage holders were "effectively underwater" through the first three months of 2014, according to the real estate firm Zil- low. That means they either owe more than their homes are worth or a sale wouldn't generate enough money to cover the closing costs and down payment for a new home. Politically shaped views How people feel about President Barack Obama appears to influence their views of the economy. Re- publicans are overwhelm- ingly pessimistic, Demo- crats optimistic, according to Gallup. Just 39 percent of every- one surveyed in June said the economy was improv- ing; 56 percent described it as getting worse. The con- sumer confidence reading for existing conditions was negative 14 despite prog- ress in hiring, auto sales and home buying. Partisan affiliation is a factor. The confidence in- dex for Democrats was 11, roughly the same as at the start of the year. Republi- cans? Their confidence was negative 38, reflecting how they think the health care law and Obama's executive actions will affect the econ- omy. Cautious shopping Most Americans are still being careful at cash reg- isters and online check- outs. Consumer spending has risen at an average an- nual pace of just 2.2 percent since the recession ended in mid-2009. That's far below the 3.4 percent average in the two decades preceding the recession. Americans are buying more cars. But that's forced them to cut back in other areas, such as clothing and electronics. The CEO of The Container Store has said the chain's sales and prof- its have suffered because consumers are in "a retail funk." That's hardly a sur- prise considering the weak pay growth and lingering anxiety after the gravest economic meltdown since the 1930s. Confidence in the econ- omy is still relatively low, suggesting that people are buying what they need in- stead of what they want. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was 85.2 in June. In the 20 years preceding the down- turn, it averaged nearly 102. ECONOMY As US job market strengthens, many aren't feeling it WILFREDOLEE—THEASSOCIATEDPRESS Shoppers walk past a now hiring sign at a Ross store in North Miami Beach, Fla., on May 16. By Steve Rothwell The Associated Press NEW YORK For investors, there were few havens on Thursday. The stock market had its worst one-day drop since February, driven down by a confluence of worries, from weak company earnings to the looming end of stimulus from the Federal Reserve. But it wasn't just stocks that suffered; oil fell to its lowest level since March, gold dropped and even Treasury notes edged lower. Stocks started the day lower after a dose of bad earnings news, and the losses accelerated through- out the day. Whole Foods Market and Exxon Mobil were among companies that fell after re- porting results or forecasts that disappointed investors. The stock market has been on a bull run for more than five years, with the most recent leg of that surge pushing the Standard & Poor's 500 index to an all- time high a week ago. In- vestors are now getting con- cerned that stocks may have climbed too far and reflect too much optimism on the outlook for growth. "We've been on a strong run," said Jerry Braak- man, chief investment offi- cer at First American Trust. "There's just more concern that stock valuations are rich compared to histori- cal norms." The S&P 500 dropped 39.40 points, or 2 percent, to 1,930.67, its biggest loss since April 10. The drop pushed the index to its first monthly loss since January. The Dow Jones indus- trial average plunged 317.06 points, or 1.9 percent, to 16,563.30. The Nasdaq composite fell 93.13 points, or 2.1 percent, to 4,369.77. The Russell 2000, an index of small company stocks, plunged 26.50 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,120.07 Exxon Mobil stock fell $4.31, or 4.2 percent, to $98.94 after the energy company said that oil and gas production slipped 6 percent, disappointing ana- lysts. The decline was driven by the expiration of rights to a field in Abu Dhabi and nat- ural field declines. Investors are also con- cerned about the outlook for growth in Europe as ten- sions escalate between the European Union and Russia after the downing of a pas- senger plane over Ukraine. The European Union on Thursday revealed the de- tails of broad economic sanctions against Russia. The main driver behind Thursday's sell-off was a re- assessment of the outlook for interest rates in the U.S. said Paul Zemsky, chief in- vestment officer of Multi- Asset Strategies and Solu- tions at Voya Investment Management. Fed policymakers said the central bank would make further cuts to its monthly bond purchases, a program that is intended to keep long-term interest rates low and encourage borrowing and spending. Policy mak- ers are also becoming more optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy after growth expanded by a bet- ter-than-expected 4 percent in the second quarter. "We're closer to the first move higher in interest rates," said Zemsky. "And there's definitely a camp that believes that the only reason that were at these levels is because the Fed has kept the rates at zero." Despite Thursday's weak earnings reports, the over- all outlook for company profits is still strong, said Zemsky. Companyearningsarestill atrecordlevels,andexpected to grow by 8.6 percent in the second quarter, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. That compares to growth of 4.9 percent in the same pe- riod a year ago and 3.4 per- cent growth in the first three months of this year. Gold fell $13.60, or 1.1 percent, to $1,281.30 an ounce. Silver fell 19 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $20.41 an ounce. WALL STREET Stocks plunge, wiping out July's gains SacredHeartSchool Less expensive than you think 2255 Monroe Street Red Bluff For further information call (530) 527-6727 or visit our website at www.sacredheartredbluffschool.org -Lookingforsmallclasssize? -Safe and caring environment? -Our Kindergarten student-teacher ratio is 10:1 SacredHeartSchool Catholic-Christian College Prep Curriculum since 1882 Smog Check (MOST CARS & PICK-UPS) 527-9841 • 195 S. Main St. starting at $ 29 95 + $ 8 25 certificate SERVICESATLOWERPRICES All makes and models. 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