2022 Hurricane Preparation Guide

2022-05-18 Hurricane Guide

Hurricane Preparation

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Page 11 of 47

Page 12 By Allyson Rae NBC2 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST Allyson Rae is the chief meteorol- ogist at WBBH-TV in Fort Myers. She has been in that role at NBC2 since October 2017. It's her second stint in the area, hav- ing worked at ABC7 and NBC2 from 2010- 2014. From 2014-2017 she worked at WUSA9, the CBS affiliate in Washington D.C., as the weekday morning meteorologist. There she covered the Blizzard of 2016. Before 2010, she was employed at several stations in tornado-prone Southern states near the Gulf of Mexico, WSFA in Montgomery, Ala., and KNOE in Monroe, Lou. The Pittsburgh native – who has a degree in meteorology from Penn- sylvania State University – has the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist Seal from the American Meteorol- ogy Society. As the 2022 hurricane season approaches, she is happy to call Southwest Florida home. The Daily Sun asked her a few questions about the season and her experienc- es. Colorado State University projects an "above-average" hurricane season, with nine hurricanes, including four major events. Last year also was busy. What is happening to make our storm seasons so ominous? It is important to remember that each hurricane season is different. Some years are not as "active" and can still produce catastrophic events. For example, Hurricane Andrew struck Florida during a hurricane season that only produced seven named storms. On the flip side, we had several very active seasons with no major hurricane U.S. landfalls from 2006 to 2016. Then in 2020 (the most active season on record), five storms made landfall in Louisiana alone, three of them at hurricane strength. Each season has the potential to be ominous for any one location no matter the number of storms. This year, La Nina is favored to continue through the summer months. This can create an environment with relatively low wind shear for the Atlantic Basin. When there is low wind shear, storms that begin to develop have a more conducive environment to continue to organize and strengthen. The 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021, according to Forbes.com. This activity is projected to be about 130% of the average season, accord- ing to the CSU forecast. Last year's hurricane season saw about 140% of the average season. Do you see any long-term trends developing? Remember that the number of storms that develop is not as important as where they go and how strong they become. There have been more Category 4 and Category 5 US landfalls from 2017-2021 than from 1963-2016. It is too early to say if this is a trend that will continue, but it is an unsettling statistic. As waters continue to warm due to our changing climate, it will be easier for storms to have the fuel to maintain their strength or rapidly intensify. Due to a warmer climate, there has been a trend of slower moving storms and higher precipitation rates, thus more freshwater events like Harvey and Florence. 'It is easier to hide from the wind than run from water' NBC2 chief meteorologist Rae discusses 2022 hurricane season FILE PHOTOS Category 4 Hurricane Charley destroyed six schools in Charlotte County, including: the Baker Center, Peace River Elementary, Neil Armstrong Elementary, East Elementary, Punta Gorda Middle and Charlotte High. Several others were damaged. Continued on page 14 The storm surge resulting from Tropical Storm Colin in 2016 battered the Gulf shoreline along Manasota Key.

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